Summary
The 2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 8, 2022 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Kentucky.
Incumbent Republican Rand Paul was first elected in 2010 with 56% of the vote, filling the seat of retiring Jim Bunning, then re-elected in 2016 with 57% of the vote. Paul is running for a third term.
Charles Booker won the Democratic primary
Source: Wikipedia
OnAir Post: 2022 KY Senate Race
About
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Solid R | November 19, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Solid R | January 7, 2022 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball[32] | Safe R | November 3, 2021 |
| Politico[33] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[34] | Safe R | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[35] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
| 538[36] | Solid R | June 30, 2022 |
Web Links
Charles Booker
Current Position: State Delegate for District 43
Affiliation: Democrat
Candidate: 2022 US Senator
Charles Booker (born October 20, 1984) is an American politician from the commonwealth of Kentucky. He served in the Kentucky House of Representatives, representing the 43rd district from 2019 to 2021. During his term, he was Kentucky’s youngest Black state lawmaker.
Booker was a candidate in the Democratic Party’s primary for the 2020 U.S. Senate race in Kentucky, drawing national attention before ultimately losing a close race to former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath. In April 2021, Booker formed an exploratory committee for the 2022 U.S. Senate race in Kentucky, and formally announced that he is running on July 1, 2021. He won the primary on May 17 and will face incumbent senator Rand Paul in the general election.
For more information, go to this post.
Rand Paul
Current Position: US Senator since 2011
Affiliation: Republican
Candidate: 2022 US Senator
Former Position(s): Opthamalogist from 1983 – 2011
Other Positions:
Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship (Ranking Member)
Featured Quote:
4 million dead and Dr. Fauci still believes we should continue funding of the Wuhan Lab. Extraordinary and unmatched poor judgement that should preclude Dr. Fauci from being anywhere near the reins of power.
For more information, go to this post.
Wikipedia
| Elections in Kentucky |
|---|
 |
 Government |
The 2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Rand Paul won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Charles Booker with 61.8% of the vote.
Paul was first elected in 2010 with 55.7% of the vote, filling the seat of retiring Jim Bunning, then re-elected in 2016 with 57.3% of the vote. Paul ran for a third term.[1] Booker is a former state representative and a candidate in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in 2020. The election was called for Paul shortly after polls closed in the state.[2]
This was the biggest landslide victory for a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky since Mitch McConnell's win in 2002.
Background
Although Rand Paul supports a Constitutional amendment limiting Senators to two terms, he said, "I'm not in favor of term limits for some and not others. So I'm not in favor of people self-imposing term limits. I'm a co-sponsor of the constitutional amendment, but I will run again in 2022."[1] Kentucky held its primary election on May 17.[3]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Arnold Blankenship, retiree[5]
- Valerie Frederick[5]
- Paul V. Hamilton, economics professor[6]
- John Schiess, perennial candidate[5]
- Tami Stanfield, former sales executive[5]
Endorsements
Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[7]
Statewide officials
- Allison Ball, Kentucky State Treasurer (2016–present)[8]
Organizations
Results
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rand Paul (incumbent) | 333,051 | 86.35% | |
| Republican | Valerie Frederick | 14,018 | 3.63% | |
| Republican | Paul V. Hamilton | 13,473 | 3.49% | |
| Republican | Arnold Blankenship | 10,092 | 2.62% | |
| Republican | Tami Stanfield | 9,526 | 2.47% | |
| Republican | John Schiess | 5,538 | 1.44% | |
| Total votes | 385,698 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Charles Booker, former state representative (2019–2021) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[13]
Eliminated in primary
- Joshua Blanton Sr., Army veteran[14]
- Ruth Gao, educator and activist[15]
- John Merrill, chemist and Navy veteran[5]
Declined
- Rocky Adkins, senior advisor to Governor Andy Beshear, former minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives, and candidate for governor in 2019[16]
- Jim Gray, Kentucky Secretary of Transportation, former mayor of Lexington, KY, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016 and candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018[17]
Endorsements
U.S. Senators
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present)[18]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[19]
U.S. Representatives
- John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative from Kentucky's 3rd congressional district (2007–2023)[20]
Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America – Louisville Chapter[21]
- IUE-CWA – Louisville Chapter[21]
- Kentucky AFL–CIO[22]
- National Education Association[23]
Organizations
- Brand New Congress[24]
- Democracy for America[25]
- Indivisible[26]
- League of Conservation Voters[27]
- March On[28]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[29]
- Sunrise Movement[30]
- Working Families Party[31]
Individuals
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 40–50%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Charles Booker | 214,245 | 73.29% | |
| Democratic | Joshua Blanton Sr. | 30,980 | 10.60% | |
| Democratic | John Merrill | 28,931 | 9.90% | |
| Democratic | Ruth Gao | 18,154 | 6.21% | |
| Total votes | 292,310 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Although Paul had initially pledged to serve only one term,[33] he later reversed this stance and ran for re-election.[34] In both 2010 and 2016, he faced tight races, even as these years were generally unfavorable for the Democratic Party and Kentucky's conservative partisan lean. Paul had gained a reputation as one of the most libertarian senators and often breaks with his party despite still holding conservative views on most issues.[35][36]
Following a narrow primary defeat to Amy McGrath in the 2020 Kentucky Senate Democratic primaries, State Representative Charles Booker announced his intention to run again, this time against Paul.[37] Booker positioned himself as a progressive populist, advocating for abortion rights, Universal Basic Income, Medicare for All, and a Green New Deal.[38] He aimed to resonate with traditional Democratic voters in the urban centers of Louisville and Lexington, while also reaching out to ancestral Democrats in Kentucky's Appalachian region.[39]
An early February poll showed Paul leading by only a few points against a generic Democrat.[40] However, a later poll revealed Paul had a substantial lead over Booker.[41] In October, a debate was scheduled to include both Paul and Booker, but Paul did not respond to the invitation, resulting in Booker debating alone.[42]
Paul went on to easily win re-election, improving his 2016 performance by approximately 9 percentage points. However, due to lower voter turnout, he underperformed compared to Trump's 2020 performance in the state by 2 points and received a slightly smaller percentage of the vote.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[43] | Solid R | November 19, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[44] | Solid R | January 7, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Safe R | November 3, 2021 |
| Politico[46] | Solid R | October 18, 2022 |
| RCP[47] | Safe R | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[48] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[49] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[50] | Solid R | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[51] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[7]
U.S. Senators
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[52]
U.S. Representatives
- Andy Barr, U.S. Representative from Kentucky's 6th congressional district (2013–present)[53]
Statewide officials
- Allison Ball, Kentucky State Treasurer (2016–present)[8]
- Ryan Quarles, Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky (2016–present)[54]
Sheriffs
- Tracy Beatty, sheriff of Ohio County[55]
- Ed Brady, former sheriff of Ohio County[55]
- Keith Cain, former sheriff of Daviess County (Democratic)[55]
- David Crafton, sheriff of Henderson County (Democratic)[55]
- Ken Frizzell, sheriff of McLean County[55]
- Barry Smith, sheriff of Daviess County[55]
Organizations
- Americans for Legal Immigration[56]
- Campaign for Working Families[56]
- Citizens Against Government Waste[57]
- Club for Growth[9]
- FreedomWorks[10]
- Huck PAC[56]
- Kentucky Fraternal Order of Police[58]
- Kentucky Right to Life[56]
- National Federation of Independent Business - Kentucky chapter[56]
- National Right to Life Committee[56]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[59][56]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[56]
- Turning Point Action[11]
U.S. Senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present)[60]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present)[18]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[19]
U.S. Representatives
- John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative from Kentucky's 3rd congressional district (2007–2023)[20]
Statewide officials
- Jerry Abramson, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky (2011–2014)[61]
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[61]
- Martha Layne Collins, former governor of Kentucky (1983–1987)[61]
- Daniel Mongiardo, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky (2007–2011)[61]
- Paul E. Patton, former governor of Kentucky (1995–2003)[61]
Newspapers
Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America – Louisville Chapter[21]
- IUE-CWA – Louisville Chapter[21]
- Kentucky AFL–CIO[22]
- National Association of Social Workers[63]
- National Education Association[23]
- United Mine Workers of America[63]
Organizations
- Brand New Congress[24]
- Common Defense[63]
- Democracy for America[25]
- End Citizens United[63]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[63]
- Indivisible[26]
- League of Conservation Voters[27]
- LegalizeKY [64]
- March On[28]
- MoveOn[63]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[65]
- New Power PAC[63]
- Newtown Action Alliance[63]
- Peace Action[63]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[29]
- Progressive Turnout Project[63]
- Sierra Club[66]
- Sunrise Movement[30]
- Working Families Party[31]
Individuals
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Rand Paul (R) | Charles Booker (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[67] | January 19–22, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 39% | 6% |
Rand Paul vs. generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Rand Paul (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[68] | February 1–4, 2021 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rand Paul (incumbent) | 913,326 | 61.80% | +4.53% | |
| Democratic | Charles Booker | 564,311 | 38.19% | −4.54% | |
| Write-in | 193 | 0.01% | +0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 1,477,830 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Elliott (largest city: Sandy Hook)
- Marion (largest city: Lebanon)
- Nicholas (largest city: Carlisle)
- Rowan (largest city: Morehead)
By congressional district
Paul won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[70]
| District | Paul | Booker | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 71% | 29% | James Comer |
| 2nd | 68% | 32% | Brett Guthrie |
| 3rd | 40% | 60% | John Yarmuth (117th Congress) |
| Morgan McGarvey (118th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 66% | 34% | Thomas Massie |
| 5th | 75% | 25% | Hal Rogers |
| 6th | 54% | 46% | Andy Barr |
See also
Notes
References
- ^ a b c Dean, Kelly (February 25, 2021). "Sen. Rand Paul discusses upcoming plans for re-election 2022". WBKO. Archived from the original on February 27, 2021. Retrieved March 6, 2021.
- ^ "Rand Paul reelected for third term". WKYT. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
- ^ WLKY Digital Team (May 10, 2022). "Voter guide: Kentucky primary election 2022". Wlky.com. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
- ^ "Sen. Rand Paul announces he has filed for re-election". WBKO. January 5, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e "Election Candidate Filings". Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
- ^ "Kentucky Secretary of State - Candidate Filings". Kentucky Secretary of State - Candidate Filings. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- ^ a b Kobin, Bill (April 9, 2021). "Donald Trump endorses Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul for 2022 reelection". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
- ^ a b "I was proud to speak at Senator @RandPaul's campaign kickoff event in Oldham County tonight! Let's Stand with Rand & help send a Republican Senate Majority to D.C. this year". Twitter. April 30, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ a b "Club for Growth PAC Endorsed Candidates". Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- ^ a b "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Rand Paul in the Kentucky U.S. Senate Race". www.freedomworksforamerica.org. August 25, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
- ^ a b "Turning Point Action". Turning Point Action - Endorsements. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- ^ a b "May 17, 2022 Official 2022 Primary Election Results" (PDF). Secretary of State of Kentucky. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
- ^ "It's official: Charles Booker will run for Senate again, this time against Rand Paul". WLKY. July 1, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
- ^ Smith, Lawrence (June 30, 2021). "Democrats begin lining up for right to challenge Sen. Rand Paul". WDRB. Retrieved July 31, 2021.
- ^ "Ruth Gao announces U.S. Senate run in Kentucky, aims to become 'first millennial woman Senator'". WLEX-TV. June 30, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
- ^ "Political Notebook: Could Rocky Adkins be Kentucky's Joe Manchin in 2022 Senate race?". Lexington Herald-Leader. April 15, 2021. Retrieved April 21, 2021.
- ^ "Room for a Moderate Democrat in 2022 U.S. Senate Primary". Kentucky Fried Politics. July 9, 2021. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
- ^ a b Breon Martin (May 2, 2021). "US Sen. Bernie Sanders holds rally with Charles Booker in Louisville". WDRB.
- ^ a b Morgan Watkins (July 26, 2021). "Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Charles Booker in bid for Rand Paul's Senate seat". Courier Journal.
- ^ a b "Rep. John Yarmuth backs Charles Booker in his bid to unseat Sen. Rand Paul". The Courier-Journal. November 11, 2021. Retrieved November 11, 2021.
- ^ a b c d "Charles Booker picks up major union endorsement in run for U.S. Senate". WLKY. July 21, 2021. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
- ^ a b Craig, Berry (March 4, 2022). "State AFL-CIO backs Booker, McGarvey". Forward Kentucky. Retrieved March 8, 2022.
- ^ a b "Our Recommended Candidates". educationvotes.nea.org. National Education Association.
- ^ a b "BNC Endorses Charles Booker!". Brand New Congress. Archived from the original on August 4, 2021. Retrieved August 4, 2021.
- ^ a b Simpson, Yvette (July 1, 2021). "Democracy for America : DFA backs Charles Booker for 2022 Senate rematch in Kentucky". democracyforamerica.com. Democracy for America.
- ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates". indivisible.org. Indivisible. September 21, 2018. Retrieved May 20, 2022.
- ^ a b "LCV ACTION FUND ANNOUNCES FIRST ROUND OF NON-INCUMBENT SENATE ENDORSEMENTS". www.lcv.org. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
- ^ a b "Endorsements". March On. December 6, 2021.
- ^ a b "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
- ^ a b "Sunrise Movement endorses progressive Democrats Summer Lee, Nida Allam and Erica Smith for Congress". March 24, 2022. Archived from the original on March 24, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
- ^ a b "Our Candidates". Working Families Party.
- ^ a b Scott Recker (October 15, 2021). "Civil Rights Attorney Ben Crump Endorses Charles Booker For Senate". LEO Weekly.
- ^ Selleck, Stacey (September 28, 2015). "Rand Paul Signs U.S. Term Limits Pledge - U.S. Term Limits". Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "Sen. Rand Paul officially files for re-election". spectrumnews1.com. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ Willis, Derek (August 12, 2015). "Votes Against Party by Rand Paul (R-Ky.)". ProPublica. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "Rand Paul on the Issues". www.ontheissues.org. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ Sonka, Joe. "Charles Booker makes it official, announces run for US Senate seat held by Rand Paul". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "Charles Booker on the Issues". www.ontheissues.org. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "Stand up for Kentucky Coal Miners". Charles Booker For U.S. Senate. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ Watkins, Morgan. "Mason-Dixon poll: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is in good shape for reelection next year". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "2022 Kentucky Senate - Paul vs. Booker | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "Rand Paul declines to debate Charles Booker on KET". Louisville Public Media. September 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
- ^ "Kentucky Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ "The Economist's 2022 Senate Election forecast". The Economist. September 18, 2022. Retrieved September 18, 2022.
- ^ Kobin, Bill (July 15, 2022). "Biden Drops Plan to Name Anti-Abortion Lawyer Backed by McConnell as Judge". The New York Times. Retrieved July 16, 2022.
Mr. McConnell said he backed Mr. Paul's re-election bid this year.
- ^ "Paul and Barr speak at Republican 'Boots and Bluegrass' event". www.richmondregister.com. October 24, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ "Senator Rand Paul, Ag. Commissioner Ryan Quarles visit Hopkinsville". whopam.com. October 1, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f "DR. RAND PAUL RECEIVES ENDORSEMENT FROM OWENSBORO AREA SHERIFFS, RELEASES AD ON DEFENDING LAW ENFORCEMENT". randpaul.com. October 11, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Rand Paul's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 11, 2022.
- ^ "CCAGW PAC Endorses Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Four House Candidates". finance.yahoo.com. October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ Storm, Nick (September 12, 2022). "Rand Paul Endorsed by KY Fraternal Order of Police". www.kentuckyfried.com. Retrieved September 13, 2022.
- ^ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Kentucky". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - ^ "Charles Booker's primary win was historic. But his Senate run against Rand Paul faces a tough road ahead". May 23, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e Storm, Nick (September 1, 2022). "Charles Booker Endorsed by Gov. Beshear & Former KY Governors". www.kentuckyfried.com.
- ^ "The Herald-Leader endorses Charles Booker for Senate". amp.kentucky.com. October 21, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Charles Booker's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ "LegalizeKY".
- ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Charles Booker for U.S. Senate in Kentucky". NARAL Pro-Choice America. August 23, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ "Congressional Endorsements". Sierra Club Independent Action.
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ "November 8, 2022 - Official 2022 General Election Results" (PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky State Board of Elections. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 24, 2022. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
- ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
External links
Official campaign websites
